Whatever happened to Pollyanna?

Where is she?  For the past four-five years I and many others of similar mind have been called every name in the book for daring to express the view that there just maybe, perhaps, might be some kind of "housing bubble".  If I had a buck for every used house salesperson who assured me that "this is the bottom", well...

The real reason I started this thread is because of accountability.  Yes, accountability.  For the first time in history we've experienced an episode that has been well documented in a democratic, not-easily-corruptible manner.  Because of blogs like this and thousands others, there can be no claim that "no one predicted all this".  Not that any of us had the entire picture -- we did not.  But in aggregate, a small group of internet "bloggers" seem to have predicted the current state of affairs with striking accuracy.

And what of all the blurry eyed optimists?  Well, not only do we have their comments of record in blogs and other extracts, preserved in the web's wayback machine for eternity.  But we also have thousands of hours of video documentary in the form of youtube and metacafe and others.  Here we can see what all these pundits, shills and outright con artists have said over the years.  We can watch the "economists" from the NAR lying quarter after quarter after quarter in the face of overwhelming evidence contrary to their rosy view of a "spring rush in 2007!"

Not that I'm going to hold my breath, but I'd love to hear from some of those who attacked me and others on this blog so viciously over the years.  Your comments are now on the record.  But where are you now?  I'm still here, as are many of my readers and commenters.  But you, the Pollyannas, where have you gone?

Comments

[Sean]

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Left, Right, Democrat, Republican, even Neo-Libertarian all marched in the parade so long as they were allowed to enter their float.
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I'd cross out the 'Left' part, and the rest are all right wing.

Regarding the evilness of all this, including the AIG bonuses paid out to the people who broke the company and punched a hole through the fabric of the universe, has everyone seen the Rolling Stone article:

The Big Takeover
The global economic crisis isn't about money - it's about power. How Wall Street insiders are using the bailout to stage a revolution

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/26793903/the_big_takeover/1

(The last digit gives you 1 to 8 pages)

[randolfe]

Oh, I very much include the Left. Though I acknowledge that of the three groups listed, only the Right is well organized. Neither the Left or the Neo-Libertarians can organize well enough to order a pizza.

But various left-ish interests definitely entered floats in the parade of gluttony. They were all too happy to enjoy the fruits of extending "the American Dream(tm) of home ownership" into every nook and cranny of the economically challenged electorate possible -- people who never had any business being seduced into home "ownership".

The Left also were huge recipients of property tax revenues at state and local levels in the most massively run-up bubble states, the majority of which are deeply "blue", more so the lower you descend into the political structure.

Now there are cities like San Francisco which have so many idiotic feel-good social programs that they can't pay for garbage and police, because they became addicted to all the property tax revenues. Watching them refuse to cut anything is like watching a German opera. The state level isn't much better, except there at least there's enough partisan stalemate to keep things from outright implosion a tad bit longer.

[randolfe]

I think my next thread will be one taking up Astrid's call for Objectivists to speak out a little more.

The working title is "Objectivism does not support Libertarianism, so neo-libertarians should quit quoting Ayn Rand; she hated people like you".

[randolfe]

Just a sampling of easily cited references to that effect:

“Libertarianism: The Perversion of Liberty,” by Peter Schwartz, in the Ayn Rand collection titled The Voice of Reason.

[astrid]

The looney left and the neo-libertarians share a lot in common. They're both highly ignorant of the economic and social theories on which they base their beliefs. They also perceive everything through their misbegotten filter on reality. Anytime a group abandons reality for orthodoxy, they've radicalized themselves beyond redemption.

[astrid]

So-called moderates such as Bernake/Geithner/Summers is just as ideologically driven and indifferent to reality. They've been ideologically pre-programmed to support Clintonian/3rd Wave style capitalism, even when faced with massive failure of said type of capitalism.

In other news, a friend called me an objectivist this Saturday. I never quite thought of myself as such, but I guess the term would suit me pretty well.

[EBGuy]

Marina is still prime... there, somebody had to say it. I am only half joking; according to Trulia there are no REOs or pending foreclosures (NOD, NOTS) in the Marina district. I expect ARMaggedon to eventually hit everywhere (70% of all Bay Area loans in 2005 were IO/Option ARMs), but parts of Ess Eff have been holding up remarkably well (stickiness?).

[randolfe]

Yes. There is stickiness here in Marin too. Seems the NODs come in waves. I suppose it's because of the size of the loans and the relatively few holders of those instruments.

By the way, ForeclosureRadar shows 4 in the Marina. Including a $3.7mm on Marina Blvd. and a $1.4mm on Fillmore. Also a new NOD on Casa Way.

[Casey!S]

EBGuy,
Do you have a link with data on IO/Option ARMs in the bay area? I recall reading similar estimates.

We are looking at setting up communal living arrangement with friends. They want to buy on the peninsula using parents money for down payment, but I want to convince them we should rent for a few years and see what happens. I'm gathering evidence that the bottom is not near at hand.

On craigslist there are big beautiful 4-5 BR places for 3500-4500 a month, which is pretty reasonable for two families. But they are looking at for sale places, seeing huge price reductions, and concluding that these must be great deals.

I know it's anyone's guess, but I'd like to convince them it's possible that prices will likely keep falling for at least 1-3 years and could be several (3,5,...10?) years before prices really start to go up again. I'm working on setting up a convincing rent vs. buy spreadsheet.

Anyone with good links to data/discussion regarding what the market might do in the BA, I'd welcome them.

[EBGuy]

Here's a link to the Chronicle article. In the Bay Area, almost three- quarters of mortgage loans taken out last year [2005] allowed borrowers to delay the payment of principal and, in some cases, interest, according to data from San Francisco research firm LoanPerformance.
Randy, thanks for the heads up on ForeclosureRadar. I'm using Trulia and I guess their data may be lagging a bit -- ahhh, you get what you pay for. Refreshing to hear that prime Marina may soon no longer be...

[randolfe]

There's a spreadsheet on this blog, btw. Check the links. It's not exactly a rent-v-buy spreadsheet. But I think it's actually more convincing. It tells you what the "next guy" will have to pay for your home in order for *you* to break even (financially).

[TunaFish]

This thread seems to have run its course....so im hijacking it. Sorry Randy, delete it if you want to.

This may be a little ranty / disorganized, but someone will hopefully be able to understand.

What is a fair wage? (Or why work?): A Collection of Thoughts.

At many places, if you work really hard, you may get a 5% raise while someone who slacks off will get a 3% raise. Sure, they may go first in a layoff, but that doesn't mean your not going.

Why is it that some people, who are salaried, brag about working overtime? I mean its like saying, "Hey, I went to BestBuy and organized all their DVDs for them for free!" These same people then look down on others for not working as hard.

If personOne take x hrs to finish a task, and personTwo can finish it in x-y hrs (y positive), what is personTwo's incentive not to slack off if required to work the same amount of time?

Is the reason "lucky to have a job" a good reason to take paycuts, work longer hours, or otherwise take crap?

Are we entitled / Do we act entitled? Should we be grateful we dont work 30 hr days? ;-) Are we so spoiled we don't even know what working hard is? Should we, or is it even accurate to compare ourselves to much older generations when it comes to this? Should we not take the benefits of technology to make our lives better? Are we ungrateful for doing so?

Should we maintain the status quo?

[EBGuy]

By the way, ForeclosureRadar shows 4 in the Marina. Including a $3.7mm on Marina Blvd. and a $1.4mm on Fillmore. Also a new NOD on Casa Way.
I thought you were out of the house hunting business for a while. A ForeclosureRadar subscription runs $50 a month (not knocking your hobby... certainly more entertaining than cable TV).

[randolfe]

A lot of thoughts there TunaFish. I could write an essay on that group of topics. But in the end, you're really challenging the current culture of work in this country. That doesn't mean you or anyone else should accept the status quo. The power of our system is that it is capable of adapting to change.

[randolfe]

Yup, $50/month for ForeclosureRadar. And every month I think about canceling.

But it only takes one hit that results in our finding our opportunity to buy a bank owned house to turn all those costs into a rounding error.

I view a ForeclosureRadar subscription as the cost of a real option.

[TunaFish]

"I could write an essay on that group of topics." I would be interested in reading that.

"But in the end, you're really challenging the current culture of work in this country. That doesn't mean you or anyone else should accept the status quo. The power of our system is that it is capable of adapting to change."
As much as i would like to take credit for all those ideas, i am noticing a number of them popping upp in blogs and at work. If things get bad enough, some sort of change would be the silver lining.

Also, if you get a chance, I found this posted in the forums on Patrick.net. The prediticions are at the bottom; I would like to know your (or anyones) thoughts on them.

http://market-ticker.org/archives/689-Where-We-Are,-Where-Were-Heading-2009.html