Creating a Residential Real-Estate Timing Model

In a recent thread discussing macroeconomic data pointing to increasing likelihood of a hard-landing for real-estate in the US, we began brainstorming what type of timing model could be created given current technology and technique.  In this thread let's move the concept forward by more formally documenting some of our ideas, testing those ideas for validity, and perhaps even preparing a simplified simulation.

I've also started a thread on Patrick.net soliciting more general views and opinions on market timing (from a "when to buy" perspective).