The residential real estate bubble has finally started to pop! Some readers will know that I am a long-time author at Patrick.net, one of the biggest real estate bubble blogs. I've authored many dozen articles there, including a few which involved a good amount of original research and analysis. One notable result has been The Bubblizer model (Excel), which has been featured on this blog since the beginning.
But now we've entered a new phase of the housing bubble blog-o-sphere. I call this phase "The Coming of the Trolls".
The popular bubble blogs have been literally overrun by Trolls. No small wonder given the ever growing number of realtors and mortgage brokers with lots of free times on their hands. But I'm also sensing the forward edge of a wave of generally pissed off would-be buyers and desperately trapped sellers.
There are people who want to buy and now cannot because the mortgage standards have reverted, at least partly, to a more reasonable level. Instead of thanking their lucky stars that they didn't become a "FB" (use your imagination) like so many other buyers in the past 2-3 years, they lash out at those who they blame for turning off the music. And who better to blame than the "bubbleheads"?
There are sellers, or rather people who can't sell for a fantasy bubble price, and are pissed off for whatever reason. Some are FBs who are having trouble getting sleep knowing their ARM reset is looming, and now they'll not be able to refinance out of it. Some are just upset that they waited too long and they can't get what their neighbor did last summer. Most of the rest are just greedy. They could sell for a reasonable price that would make the house move, but they won't. Because they think they somehow deserve a 50% per year return on their house.
Well, too bad. Market fundamentals cure all forms of temporary insanity eventually, and the next 12 months will be a real textbook example of "shock therapy" for the millions of home owners who bet on ever rising house prices.
But, I fear the era of open, loosely moderated blogs on this topic is also drawing quickly to an end. There are just too many pissed off people with way too much time on their hands. So, if fellow financially responsible folks wish talk this crash down, feel free to use this forum. I have an open code of conduct clearly posted, and Trolls need not apply. I'm also looking for authors, so if you're interested please email me.
Randolfe_ (aka: Randy H)
The popular bubble blogs have been literally overrun by Trolls.
Has it really gotten that bad on other bubble blogs apart from Patrick.net? I haven't seen too many trolls out on Calculated Risk, for example.
What is the psychology of a part-time troll, anyway? A real troll does it for the thrill of aggravating people. But are people attacking the bubble blogs out of denial, a misplaced sense that the blogs are spreading misinformation, or some deeper reason? I can't really believe that pseudo-trolls think the bubble blogs are responsible for any price slides or stagnating inventories.
Posted by: Brand | Monday, September 03, 2007 at 21:08
. But are people attacking the bubble blogs out of denial, a misplaced sense that the blogs are spreading misinformation, or some deeper reason?
I don't know about the deeper psychology behind Trolling. That's a topic for a psychobabble blog. I think it's just a lot of misplaced anger/Angst/worry.
Calculated Risk is reasonably moderated I thought. Similar to SeekingAlpha, which is even more actively moderated. I think the "pop blogs" like Patrick are drawing a lot more attention from casual readers, and as such there is a real impact to Trolling. Think of someone jumping into Patrick.net for the first time on the latest blog, and contrast that to any thread from a year or even six months ago.
Posted by: randolfe_ | Monday, September 03, 2007 at 21:52
Randy,
I know, I know, I am one of the guilty "troll feeders" over at Patrick. But sometimes it can't be resisted. I think there is an overriding concern that troll comments left without a rebuttal results in an implicit acceptance as truth or at least valid opinion. And on "pop blogs" like Patrick.net, there are enough casual lurkers that this is a real concern.
BTW, I'm also sorry if we're ironically turning your troll-free thread into a thread about trolls!
Posted by: skibum | Monday, September 03, 2007 at 22:43
@skibum
This thread is indeed about Trolls, or rather about how they're affecting the discourse.
I worry that the Trolls are now having the effect of making the entire forum at Patrick's unfriendly to casual lurkers and new readers. It's just very hard to follow any debate when there is so much noise.
Posted by: randolfe_ | Monday, September 03, 2007 at 23:36
I think the newer troll is usually some J6P who heard about The Bubble and decided to google it. They read comments at Patrick's, and try to set things straight with some insight that was already proven wrong about a year ago.
The problem, particularly at Patrick's, is that the usual discussion is quite chatty and informal - newbies have no idea of the breadth and depth of expertise among some of the posters. So they are effectively stepping into a forum where most of them are out of their depth.
Since we don't have a lot of news on a slow weekend, some of us end up batting them around... I usually try to avoid it, but the latest one is just one of those that you can't keep your hands off of... :-)
SP
Posted by: SP | Monday, September 03, 2007 at 23:48
Maybe the patrick.net regulars should have a code word (e.g. "Rosebud") that we use to indicate that we will no longer respond to a particular troll.
SP
Posted by: SP | Monday, September 03, 2007 at 23:51
SP,
You're exactly right about the weekend troll bashing. Some of these guys strut into Patrick.net and have no idea what they are talking about. Some of our regulars (you and Randy here of course are included among them) have extensive knowledge about housing, economics, etc, and I have been constantly impressed by the high level of discussion.
I think a "code word" may not do the trick, though, as there needs to be a way to quickly and efficiently broadcast to "lurkers" and casual readers that these trolls are trying to make points that (a) make no sense, and (b) have been discussed to death months, if not years ago on patrick.net. Maybe the moderators should edit trollish posts by adding links to relevant older threads?
The other thing to keep in mind is that one of the things I really like about patrick.net is that one can engage in high-level discussion one minute, and swear like a sailor the next. We shouldn't forget that the humor on the site makes it different than many of the others. Ben's blog, for instance, lost any sense of humor long ago, if it indeed ever had one. CR has a bit of it, but the humor is definitely on the dry side.
Posted by: skibum | Tuesday, September 04, 2007 at 07:33
A looming issue that still needs to be reconciled is that blogs are friendly towards deep, expansive discourses that seek to thoroughly characterize the issues discussed. However, casual surfers are still attuned to mainstream news outlets where sound bites predominate. This might be why blog members feel the need to respond to trolls like TOS/TOB/Donald, et al. The trolls can drop a blog-equivalent of a sound bite and run, leaving regular blog participants to clean up the rational-discursive (as opposed to the rambling-discursive, though there is lots of that at Patrick as well, heh) pollution, out of concern that newcomers will be seduced by these sound bites.
This is where the value of an editor might really shine through. If an editor picked through past discussions of a blog, then assembled an FAQ with editorial comments, it would likely go a long ways towards addressing the compulsion a lot of regulars feel towards feeding trolls.
There is of course, always one way to put a troll's feet to the fire: offer a friendly wager in real life, arbitrated by the market. Troll gets to pick one of the local markets covered by the CME housing futures, specify any expiration more than 18 months out (to make the futures a little cheaper to buy), put a number to their claims, and put up real money, but not enough to engender bad blood (remember, it's just a friendly wager). Someone opposite the troll can put up an opposing position. Place both positions in the hands of an escrow service (just an attorney randomly selected could work), with instructions to liquidate both positions upon the expiration date, and publish the results with a digital signature. But that wouldn't be nearly as fun as the back and forth repartee on the boards now with no resolution in the next couple of quarters, would it?
Posted by: apostasy | Tuesday, September 04, 2007 at 08:52
I tried to challenge TOS to a wager almost a year ago. In a truly trollish manner, she dodged while still claiming that I lost the bet.
I don't think a code word will work either. It would certainly work for those of us in the know, but it wouldn't help the casual readers or newbies. It risks making us look even more inside, isolated, and out of touch. I'd imagine the Trolls would have a field day once they figured out what we were doing.
I can't think of a good answer except for active editing and moderating.
Posted by: randolfe_ | Tuesday, September 04, 2007 at 09:03
Any of us could reference posts where a fresh trollism has already been debated if there were a good search feature on the site at Patrick's. Is there a way to introduce a google (or some other brand) site-search feature?
Actually, I think this was debated last year. Not possible, I suppose.
Posted by: burnside | Tuesday, September 04, 2007 at 09:32
You can use Google if you do advanced search and limit to patrick.net/wp. I find that to be somewhat limiting, though. It's still very hard because the conversations aren't threaded.
Posted by: randolfe_ | Tuesday, September 04, 2007 at 10:43
FYI: Just added "Donald's" IP and email have to the Patrick.net blacklist. Doesn't mean s/he won't return under a new name/IP, but hey, that's what moderators are for.
Posted by: HARM | Tuesday, September 04, 2007 at 14:22