I'm pulling out the paddles and shocking this blog back to life. I have been distracted with real work and other blogs to which I've contributed heavily. Well, now those blogs have become either cesspools of racism and bigotry or decomposed into industry shill tools.
I'm hoping that at least a few of the reasonable folks I enjoyed conversing with take some time to come here occasionally and discuss the same issues we've always discussed: real estate, economics, and living life through these increasingly interesting times.
If anyone is interested in authoring blog threads of your own, please email me. Link is on the side (I forget which, it's been so long, lol).
I'll also be cleaning up the layout of this blog when I get time over the next week.
--Randy H
PS: When you comment, it will prompt you for your email address. I (for now) still allow anonymity, so your address is never revealed unless you chose to do it yourself.
I'll look into setting up a threaded forum if enough express an interest. I can easily set up something similar to Zillow's threading, but without all the necessary Ajax. (For the non-techies, that means all the crap on Zillow that causes "Ziccups" all the time.)
Posted by: randolfe_ | Monday, September 22, 2008 at 10:20
Hello Randy, because of these troubling times, I (a xxxow, and Randy_H faithful) will be following your blog faithfully. Please keep us up to date on your take on current economics. Specifically, I would like to hear your feelings on Goldman and Morgan's recent moves.
Posted by: Jim | Monday, September 22, 2008 at 10:23
I haven't digested the recent conversion of GS and MS into "real" banks. My immediate thoughts are that this could be a real boom for the boutique investment banks. There are still a lot of traditional IBs around that never got involved in all this garbage the big houses were pumping. There will still be a need for their services after the dust settles, and hopefully they'll thrive.
I really don't shed a tear for big investment banking, for both professional and personal reasons. I'm a little more interested in how this will affect private equity and hedge funds.
Posted by: randolfe_ | Monday, September 22, 2008 at 10:32
I agree that there will always be a need for the traditional IBs. I'm still not sure what to think of GS. It seemed as though they've always had a somewhat conservative approach, and I feel this is just another conservative move in order to stay out of the trouble that other big IBs got into. Real capital through retail deposits is a good thing, I just am not sure the role they will play as pressure on the markets eases. Sadly, I don't think we'll see that pressure ease anytime soon.
Posted by: Jim | Monday, September 22, 2008 at 10:49
Looking forward to seeing more.
Always respected your opinions on zillow -- even when they differed than mine (which was not all that often).
Posted by: mrfnuts | Monday, September 22, 2008 at 10:52
Here is the link to the Japanese-model PDF I put on Zillow over the weekend. It was produced by the Federal Reserve of San Francisco, which is tragically ironic at this point.
(As a reminder, you can use basic HTML in your comments, pretty much the same as any Wordpress blog.)
Posted by: randolfe | Monday, September 22, 2008 at 11:27
I'm happy to hop on over here to your blog for more scintillating, yet rational conversation. Thanks for opening things up for us to continue.
Posted by: formercalifornian | Monday, September 22, 2008 at 11:48
Sorry that you are planning to leave the other forum, but I do understand. I flagged the crap out of the obnoxious posts to try to get them removed and even emailed Zillow's media contacts to notify them of their exposure. Just sorry that it happened at all.
Like I posted on another thread thread, you explain things well and I appreciate your insight and explanations. You make me feel like Dory in Finding Nemo. I just seem to understand stuff better when you explain it. I will definitely drop by for visits. How else would I get my fix of economic reality? BTW In case you don't see it posted on the other site that shall remain nameless--thank you, thank you for the Fed's Japan study link. I am so glad to see some of that stuff in in print after all the talking head crap about a speedy painless recovery. Hope to see you around both here and elsewhere.
Posted by: sunnyview | Monday, September 22, 2008 at 14:04
This hot link's for you Randy http://www.zillow.com/forum/site/ViewThread.htm?tid=43359
because you are already missed.
Posted by: littlebird | Monday, September 22, 2008 at 14:38
Thanks for the nice comments. You guys know how to tug at those few remaining emotional strings of mine. I've learned to never say never, but I think I need a break from the noise of "pop blogging", or whatever you'd call it.
I sort of like the idea of writing some calmer stuff here, where we can easily link and refer to earlier data, analysis, comments, and ideas. Think of all the time that could be saved somewhere like Zillow if we didn't have to say the same thing over and over and over. On here I can sticky, link and trackback. Makes for a higher signal-to-noise ratio.
I hope that enough folks venture over here to keep some interesting discussions going. Maybe 2-3 topics a week, I'm thinking...
Posted by: randolfe | Monday, September 22, 2008 at 14:53
...favorited the link as soon as i saw it. you're the only persuasive voice that isn't seriously encouraging the stockpiling of weapons. my poor suffering husband is greatful for your voice of (concerned) reason. ;)
Posted by: alia | Monday, September 22, 2008 at 18:22
Miss you over at Zillow...
You are one of the few that backed your comments with real data, and could explain the market dynamics.
Zillow finally added a Economics Watch discussion catagory today after you left.
BUT, now they limit the number of threads a user can start per day to about 5, so it is not time to come back yet. That means that most of the new threads will be by the multi-personality posters.
They still need to provide some check on the E-mail address (by actually E-mailing to them before a user is "registered"), and limit the number of profiles to one per E-mail address; but this still won't stop the multi-personality people from creating hundreds of E-mail addresses to go with their multi-personality profiles.
Posted by: Pasadenan | Monday, September 22, 2008 at 22:15
with you buddy, look into that forum thing!
Posted by: NTETS | Monday, September 22, 2008 at 23:19
I am looking forward to conversation here. The open exchange of information, ideas and opinions is what attracted me to Z in the first place, some of the other…well we could all do without. Appreciate you Randy.
Posted by: REALTOR_GRI | Tuesday, September 23, 2008 at 12:21
Thanks for comments and suggestions. I'll be looking into getting a bulletin board forum set up this weekend. I know conversation via blog can be frustrating. Until then, I might add a couple of articles here. I'll still continue to use the blog as a reference point where I and others can publish more thoroughly researched work, essays, or other things they wish to be more or less preserved.
Posted by: randolfe | Tuesday, September 23, 2008 at 20:35
Hey Randy,
The new Economic Watch forum seems to be working well so far. I have observed many "new" posters making comments there. Our resident trolls have a hill to climb to make headway there, since they must have some grasp of the issues at hand in order to participate. I invite you to come on back (to the place that shall not be named) and take a look. It is not quite as good as disseminating info. directly on the Buyers' board, but it may actually become a reasonable substitute.
This is a nice blog, BTW. I like the suggested texts to the right. I have been far too lax in my reading lately.
Posted by: K101 | Tuesday, September 23, 2008 at 20:36
Randy -
I need your comments and feedback on a farfetched government intervention idea. I don't think most of the posters over there have the ability to understand what I posted, let alone evaluate it.
Repackaging mortgage securites
(I hope I typed the html for link correctly...)
Posted by: Pasadenan | Tuesday, September 23, 2008 at 21:27
Hi Randy,
Good to see you back! I don't have much to contribute at this moment, I'll definitely be keeping an eye on your site going forward.
Posted by: astrid | Wednesday, September 24, 2008 at 12:03
Great to see you again Astrid. You know we never found out what happened in part-2 of the big Iceland sojourn.
Posted by: randolfe | Wednesday, September 24, 2008 at 20:25
Pasa
Welcome to my blog. Thanks for the reference link. I am looking for ideas to write a couple of articles on. I'm currently working on a more diagram-heavy article which outlines the way (in my opinion) house prices are determined by the market. I'm hoping to post that here to generate some conversation. I'm also working on installing a Unix-based BBS system on my VPS host, which I'll link from here. I'll be looking for some folks to help me moderate it if we actually get some traffic.
Posted by: randolfe | Wednesday, September 24, 2008 at 20:27
Oh yeah! I owe you that! I can still write about my Iceland trip (I'm still sorting through and editing pictures from the trip), some random takeaways are:
- Rough Guides is generally better than Lonely Planet, but it was nice to have both on hand
- Definitely buy the Reykjavik City Pass and visit as many musuems as time allows
- Definitely rent a car if you plan to venture outside of Reykjavik. It provides a lot more flexibility and worked out to be cheaper than busfare for two people. We got a good deal by booking through a consolidator
- Iceland is highly accessible by car, almost all attractions are within short walking distance of parking lot
- Don't try too hard to save on food. Icelandic food is really good and worth the splurge. If you want to save money on food, try to self cater breakfast and have something light for lunch. Many nice restaurants open only for dinner anyways.
- Don't camp unless you absolutely have to, the weather is pretty miserable for campers. You're better off sleeping in hostels or in a car to save money
- If you have the time and like hiking, definitely consider hiking to Skogar/Thorsmork
August is too late for puffins sighting, but not for puffin eating
- The most predictable things about Iceland are: rain, rainbow, sheep, and waterfalls -- plan accordingly
Posted by: astrid | Friday, September 26, 2008 at 09:17
Sweet!!!
Posted by: Lady of 3GirlsVA | Friday, September 26, 2008 at 10:53
A little revolution is good! Zillow (however long down the road) will be a better place! I have learned much from all of you and I thank you!!
Posted by: Lady of 3GirlsVA | Friday, September 26, 2008 at 10:57
See link.
Posted by: Me | Friday, September 26, 2008 at 12:15
http://www.zillow.com/forum/site/ViewThread.htm?tid=43822
Posted by: Me | Friday, September 26, 2008 at 12:16
Interesting. I'll check back on Zillow after a bit of a break. I just think it's best to avoid the wrath of the resident cyberstalker over there until Zillow has thoroughly managed to drive him away for good.
Posted by: randolfe | Friday, September 26, 2008 at 13:01
david caved Randy!
Hi all,
I need your help ignoring this pathetic, sad troll that's abusing our boards. I can tell you that Seattle Landlord is also "big stroker" (that's not surprising, right?), sitting bull 1, Buyer1012, TinaQ and Inside Scope. Those user accounts are suspended but these losers do tend to resurface - that's simply how irresistible you all are. We are following up with the proper authorities because this has gone way too far but please, accept my apologies for this harassment and PLEASE DONT FEED THE TROLLS. They eventually will leave if you ignore them - these lowlife scumbags feed off the attention that your responses afford them (I know it's easier said than done - just look at this post.)
Seattle Landlord - You must have a great view of Mt Rainier from your place today. Please note that you are not welcome on Zillow.
Posted by: NTETS | Saturday, September 27, 2008 at 01:37
I read David's generous comments. I'll keep an eye on Zillow and see if it straightens out. I'm as guilty as anyone getting pulled down into the troll mud. The problem isn't so much just ignoring the known trolls -- I had been doing that for months more or less. The problem is how a troll can start engaging others so as to hijack a conversation, often only to find out that other person is just another troll ruse.
Anyway, I like David's idea of plugging in a Zillow widget. I had thought of doing that but somehow feeding the numbers into my own real estate pricing model. Speaking of that model: it's held up for three years now. Maybe it's time to update that...
Posted by: randolfe | Saturday, September 27, 2008 at 08:41
Randy,
Any root cause analysis that you'd care to share regarding the economic meltdown and it's relationship to the real estate market? In trying to get some sort of (superficial) sense of "how we got here", I keep coming across certain things, but it's difficult for me to form an opinion since I'm not at all on familiar ground.
Derivatives, leverage, risk (mis)management, unregulated/regulated, mark-to-market, all seem to be factors in the unraveling. It seems as though the real problem isn't with the real estate bubble popping - that's a natural, overdue correction that should have had a much more limited impact. But there was too much piled on the back of that bubble, too much leverage, not enough reserves, too little interest in understanding and funding the real risks.
I was just reading about LTCM back in '98 - some similarities in regards to leverage, but to me it seems like they got whacked by a much less obvious and difficult to anticipate event. A much less obvious event than the housing bubble.
Thanks!
Posted by: CuriousButConfused | Thursday, October 09, 2008 at 08:23
LTCM isn't that good of a comparison. The event in that case was the Russian currency crisis, and more widely the Asian currency crisis. LTCM itself was really nothing more than a giant hedge fund which ran an arbitrage model to an ever escalating point of failure. At the point of failure, LTCM themselves had become the market which they were trying to trade.
This crisis is much more systemic and globally dispersed. It's not really about the "housing bubble", per se. It's about a worldwide liquidity bubble which has resulted in rolling, snowballing asset bubbles. When those bubbles were within industry sectors, equity markets, or even commodity classes, then the damage from deflation of those bubbles could be absorbed by other parts of the economy. After all, we have just come through a period of unprecedented global growth. So when the tech-bubble deflated, much of that was absorbed by growing global trade.
But they kept adding more and more liquidity. So the excess of each bubble migrated to the next, augmented by even more cheap money. The final resting place -- the last, greatest bubble -- had to be so-called "real assets". Real estate, in all its various forms. But now, there is nowhere big enough to absorb the deflation. There is not enough global growth potential. There is not enough productivity improvement potential. There is not enough capacity to simply reinflate other bubbles.
Instead, real, hard deflation must occur. That's my opinion. For if I'm to believe there won't be deflation, I'm being asked to believe that there is going to be 10% GDP growth for the next decade, which ain' gonna happen.
Posted by: randolfe | Thursday, October 09, 2008 at 09:44
Meh, OK, thanks for the feedback. My basic takeaway is that I need to develop some basis for even trying to understand or discuss this stuff. Something with a broader perspective than the articles I've been reading which are very focused and specific to a particular sub-system. But where to start? World-wide economic systems? Yikes! Economic systems 101? I looked at the list of books in the right-hand pane, but I don't see anything appropriate there? I guess I'll walk down to the local Borders and browse a bit....
Posted by: CuriousButConfused | Thursday, October 09, 2008 at 10:40
Sorry if I didn't answer your question. The books I've linked here are the more notable ones from my education or continued studies & reference.
I don't really know of an "accessible" macro econ book which isn't a textbook. I'm sure there are lots in the bookstore, but I caution that there is quite a lot of crap on the Business/Econ/Finance shelves at booksellers.
I really like the Mankiw book I link on the right. It is a textbook. But it's easily readable. It will give you a fundamental "macro 101" sort of education. Some of it approaches graduate-level subjects, but you can just skip those and come back later if you're interested. Mankiw's book explains the neo-classical and Keynesian theories, which is what most econo-babble in US & western economies pertains to.
I'd stay away from books on globalization, trade, or strategy. Those books are best read once you understand more about the underlying theories because they are necessarily biased or focused on narrow contexts. ie., I would avoid Stiglitz and Friedman until after reading Mankiw.
Posted by: randolfe | Thursday, October 09, 2008 at 11:09
No, no, no, it wasn't that you didn't answer my question.... OK, Mankiw it is! Now I just have to find that book at a decent price....stumbled across Mankiw's blog while searching online, probably take a look at it later tonight. Thanks again.
Posted by: CuriousButConfused | Thursday, October 09, 2008 at 11:37